A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
